The Bottom Line on Cal's Governor Race!

California governor race: Villaraigosa, Newsom neck and neck in first Field Poll

Californians won't elect their next governor for three more years, but the race is already shaping up to be one of the most compelling statewide contests the Golden State has seen in years, a new Field Poll shows.

Three experienced Democrats with broad name recognition -- former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom and current Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti -- have the greatest voter support, according to the survey. And under the state's new nonpartisan "top two" primary system, Californians could wind up seeing two Democrats square off in the November 2018 election.

The survey found that more than four in 10 likely voters say they'd back Villaraigosa, 62, and Newsom, 48, and a slightly smaller share say they'd endorse Garcetti, 44. It also shows that almost three in 10 voters say they'd support Democrats Tom Steyer, a billionaire environmentalist, and John Chiang, the state treasurer.

So far, the only one who has declared his candidacy is Newsom.

"Getting the highest proportion of support" at this point is "pretty good news" for Villaraigosa, Newsom and Garcetti, said Field Poll director Mark DiCamillo, noting that this is the first time Californians have been surveyed about the 2018 contest.

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Potential candidates that got the least support include San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer, a Republican; Silicon Valley venture capitalist and former state Controller Steve Westly, a Democrat; and Fresno Mayor Ashley Swearengin, a Republican. Fewer than a quarter of voters said they would support these three candidates.

The last hot California governor's race was in 2010, when Republican billionaire Meg Whitman spent $144 million of her own money but lost badly to Jerry Brown when her campaign collapsed after it was revealed she had hired a housekeeper who was an illegal immigrant. Brown also crushed Republican Neel Kashkari last year in a dud of an election.

Predictably, the survey shows the top candidates poll best in regions of the state where they've lived, worked and are most well-known. Northern California voters are most inclined to support Newsom, the former mayor of San Francisco, while Southern Californians are more likely to back Villaraigosa and Garcetti.

DiCamillo said the results are "not a big surprise," but added that it will be interesting to make comparisons against this first survey as the election gets closer and powerful special interest groups such as labor unions and the business community decide which Democrat to support.

Although the survey doesn't attempt to replicate an actual election by asking respondents to pick a single candidate, the results reinforce what Newsom and his advisers feel they already know -- that he has a "solid advantage," said Dan Newman, a spokesman for Newsom's campaign.

"This poll reinforces our confidence that Newsom is off to a strong start and by all measures remains in a significantly better position than any of the various candidates potentially considering entering the race," Newman said.

Villaraigosa and Garcetti could not be reached for comment on the poll, which surveyed 1,002 registered voters between Sept. 17 and Oct. 4 and has a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.

Winning the Latino vote will be crucial to success in the 2018 gubernatorial race. And among Latino voters, Newsom has far less support than some of the other potential candidates. Interestingly, the survey shows Villaraigosa has much stronger support (62 percent) among Latino voters than Garcetti (48 percent), who is part Mexican-American.

"Outside of Los Angeles, it's quite possible that voters don't know Garcetti is Hispanic," said Jack Pitney, a political expert at Claremont McKenna College. "But in the end, I think he'll have a leg up because his public service is more recent and his tenure less controversial."